On March 26, 2018, the IRCC invited 3,000 candidates to apply for permanent residence who were in the Express Entry pool and had a CRS score of 446+. This is now the 4th draw in a row the IRCC has issued 3,000 invitations. It appears IRCC has changed their strategy around invitation numbers. Last year, all draw sizes varied and were odd numbers. This year, we have seen 5 draws of 2,750 and more recently, 4 draws of 3,000. If this pattern repeats, we should see yet another draw size of 3,000 in the next draw.
Our firm anticipates more candidates to be selected in the coming draws which should result in lower CRS scores, possibly in the 420 - 430 range by June. Last year did in fact see a new CRS low of 413 in June.
This year started with higher CRS scores due to the large number of candidates in the pool with PNP nominations. In the previous draw, there were 2,200 people in the pool with a PNP, which resulted in a higher CRS score. As can be seen by the distribution chart below, there were 50% fewer PNP candidates in this draw, resulting in a lower CRS. We anticipate in the next draw or two, the score will decline further (possibly into the mid to high 430s). A combination of higher draw sizes (3,300+) and fewer PNP candidate in the pool will help lower the CRS score further as we approach the summer.
In 2018, 85,000 people are expected to be selected in Express Entry system, under the Federal Skilled Worker program.
Matkowsky and Associates